We have made it through the week — happy Friday! Let’s enjoy the weekend with a couple of winning MLB picks from the late window. Season record: 19-14-1, +2.53 units.
**Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants — Giants F5 -0.5 (+114 at FanDuel)**
This matchup features a pitching duel between one of the easiest names to pronounce in MLB (Robbie Ray) and one of the toughest (Carmen Mlodzinski). There is also a stark contrast in recent form.
Giants starter Robbie Ray has turned back the clock, posting a 2.95 ERA — his lowest since his Cy Young season with the Blue Jays in 2021. His strikeout rate (25.5%) has dropped from the low 30s of his prime, but he is throwing more strikes (8.9% walk rate) and controlling contact effectively with an average exit velocity of 87.4 mph (72nd percentile) and a hard-hit rate of 33% (79th percentile). Most of his contact is in the air, which plays well in his spacious home park.
Carmen Mlodzinski is a converted starter and has experienced a bumpy ride, at least by the numbers. Through his first four starts, he had a 1.77 ERA but a mediocre 13.4% K-BB%. Over his last three starts, he improved that mark to 22.4% but paid the price with ferocious contact — a 19.4% barrel rate. To put that in perspective, Byron Buxton (19%) and Matt Olson (20.2%) are elite hitters. The result: a 9.22 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in that span.
You might argue the Giants are the least equipped team in MLB to take advantage of a pitcher serving up meatballs, and you’d be correct. They have only 23 home runs, the fewest in the league. However, they added intriguing bats this week in Bryce Eldridge and Jesus Rodriguez, and their overall offensive output has ticked up. The Giants hold a major edge on the mound, so isolating that advantage with an F5 play at home makes sense.
**Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers — Dodgers F5 (-104 at FanDuel)**
It is not often that you can get the Dodgers at a reasonable price. There is a very good reason here: they face an excellent Braves team and ace Chris Sale. Sale has been lights out this season with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP — numbers slightly better than his 2024 Cy Young campaign. His 29.9% strikeout rate ranks in the 91st percentile. Meanwhile, the Braves have been hitting well despite Ronald Acuña Jr. landing on the injured list and Michael Harris II dealing with nagging injuries.
So why back the Dodgers? Today’s starter, Emmet Sheehan, might be undervalued because of his overall numbers (5.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Under the hood, he has pitched very well, especially over his last three starts: a 32.8% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.5% walk rate, and an ace-like SIERA of 2.51. Interestingly, his velocity has dipped slightly from early in the season, yet he is throwing much better, now generating strong plus results with his slider.
This matchup looks like an early preview of the NLCS. Go with the two-time defending champions.
